Sunday, November 26, 2006

Wannabe Tory MPs in Hants get an unexpected boost as East Hants selects!

Petersfield in the constituency of East Hants, pictued in about 1833.
Avaliable as a jigsaw from apparently!
East Hampshire is a plum Tory Seat. Including the towns of Petersfield (the old constituency name) and Alton, east Hants also includes villeges such as Ropley, Meonstoke and Four Marks. For a quick look at the area, the outgoing Tory MP Michael Mates (who has represented the seat since 1974 in one guise or another) has very kindly posted a map at
At the last general election the scores on the doors were;

Conservative 24,273 votes 45.7 share down −1.9%
Lib-Dems 18,764 votes 35.3 share up +5.4%
Labour 8,519 votes 16.0 share down −3.6
UKIP; 1,583 votes 3.0 share up +0.2
Majority 5,509 10.4
Turnout 53,139 66.9% +2.6

I work that out as a -3.7% swing and the only thing to worry the Conservatives is that the Lib-Dems are increasing their vote at each election steadily- in the 2001 election they polled 15,060 votes which was itself 2% up on the '97 result.
So who will go for it?
Any Conservative on the A-list, especially those who missed out in the neighbouring Meon Valley (East Meon is actually in the East Hants constituency) and Winchester seats, those local candidates who have an association with the patch, as well as those who serve on East Hants District Council, Hants County Council and Havant Borough Council.
Should be an interesting selection with lots of competition...


Blogger Tejus Ramakrishnan said...

I believe the libdems are losing their popularity and the labour have already lost it.. So in a plum seat such as this, should we not be looking for an increase??

2:27 am  
Blogger Ryan Newell said...

Take it the Conor Burns will be throwing his hat into the ring.
He needs a safe seat after all

11:41 pm  

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